Choose Wisely, You Must

After completing the 2013 Draft Day Spreadsheet (I keep it under the Spreadsheets tab - it's free to download), I can now respond to Kerry's second question in her recent comments: "Do you have any recommendations for comparing or combining rankings from different sources?"

As a matter of fact (OK opinion), I do.

I pull rankings from five different web sites: NFL, CBS Fantasy Sports, ESPN Fantasy Sports, FantasyPros and Sporting News. Then I average the five sources and rank my players based on that average. These are standard rankings, meaning they are not based on Point Per Reception (PPR) performance. And they change all the time so I update the ranks from each source as close to my draft as possible.

Some sites offer Average Draft Position (ADP), but I don't put much stock in how the rest of the world drafts their players. There are a lot of different leagues, roster requirements, scoring schemes, draft strategies and enough insanity that says: I'm not down with ADP, hey you know me.

Fantasy Projections are nice but I don't how how accurate they are. We should get a report card on these projections mid season and again after the season to see how effect they really are in predictability. We should get the same from meteorologists, but that's another topic for another day.

In my draft spreadsheets, I include several things:

• Last year's stats for each player as reference, knowing full well they may not perform like that again.
• The bye week for each player because it's crucial when building your roster (having a backup QB with the same bye week doesn't help you).
• The player's age. It can help when deciding between similarly ranked players.
• The current Depth Charts - it's quick reference to see which teams have formed a Running Back committee (just like work, committees should be avoided), who the quarterback is this year (I want to know who's throwing to this "awesome" receiver or tight end), and who are the true starters. This also changes during the preseason so later drafts benefit from more realistic information.
• A grid to track the draft for the entire league, if you're so inclined. I am so inclined.
• A grid to track the team as you choose, along with the bye weeks, and what spots are left to fill.

Before Draft Day, it's a good idea to color code players that are injured, suspended, or sleeper picks. You can add your own notes to the side.

When we're actually drafting, I shade out the players that have been picked so I can see who's available as we pick.

I'm a spreadsheet guy, so this tool helps me tremendously for all my drafts. I simply make copies for each league. Then I adjust each according to the number of teams, roster spots, bench spots and the draft order itself.

When I'm all done the draft, I use the FF 2013 Roster Management spreadsheet (also under the Spreadsheets tab and free) to manage my roster each week, track player progress, track upcoming bye week substitution needs, and prospective players available on the wire.

Thanks for the great questions, Kerry! Hopefully, this information, and my obsession with spreadsheets, is helpful.

Good luck!
~Mike

Picking Order

In a recent comment, Kerry asked: "Do you have any recommendations for position picking order, outside of player valuation? I feel like there must be a best way to choose based upon limited players available versus limited team slots versus the limitation of how many players you can play at once."

Honestly, you've just summarized what you should do!

When I head into my fantasy draft, I have a game plan and an order of positions to fill. However, it is dynamic and I adjust as the draft moves along.

The order in which you fill the slots of your roster should be based on several factors, round by round:

• Your league's scoring system
• The number of teams in your league: 10? No worries. 16? GFL.
• The roster slots you need to fill
• The number of players you can carry for each slot (for example, 2 QBs, 4 RBs, 4 WRs, etc.)
• The number of players you can play each week (for example, 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex RB/WR, etc.)
• The best players available in the slots you're filling and how many picks before your next chance comes up again
• The BYE week of the player you're considering
• And if it's a keeper league, who's gone before the draft even starts.

Think of it like inventory management for a huge, one-day sale.

In most leagues, Running Backs are the toughest and go early and often. Just remember to watch the BYE weeks before each pick so you aren't scrambling to replace multiple starters on different weeks. Also, consider the team: is it running back by committee? Do they have a strong run or are they pass happy? Do they had the touchdowns to someone else seemingly every time this guy is in?

Wide Receiver performance doesn't really show until a few weeks into the season, and there are usually at least two good WRs per team, as opposed to RBs. Every season I end up pulling WRs off the waiver wire as the strongest players show themselves well after the draft. And I'm always concerned about off-season changes. Does this WR have an established chemistry with his QB? So I try not to sweat the WRs on draft day and just make sure I get some starters.

For QBs, it's often the top three and then everyone else. Again, this depends on how your league handles scoring. And remember: there are 32 teams with full-time, starting QBs.

Tight Ends can act as receivers and pull in some touchdowns, but often their primary duty is to block. So there are only a few good fantasy tight ends each season. Personally, I don't fret over this position.

Defenses can really bring some points in, especially with special teams opportunities, but it usually takes several weeks for the strong Ds to show themselves. Even after that, consistency for big points can be rare.

Kickers can always be picked last. Just like QBs, there are 32 starters. Yes, they have the potential to provide your team points each week but the negative points from missed Field Goals or lack of opportunities for low-scoring offenses (or phenomenal offenses that only offer extra points) usually deflates that potential.

And try not to get caught up in runs, like when everyone goes for a Defense or Kicker in an early round. Let. Those. Runs. Go. But if the #1 Tight End is out there in the fifth round, it can be fun to start a run by grabbing him and then getting a WR on the swing back.

Finally, keep track of who you're picking, the bye week of every player on your roster, and who's still available in every round. I use a set of Draft Day spreadsheets (you can find mine under the Spreadsheets tab) to track all of this. Saves my ass every time.

There's no science here. Just my strategy for draft day. I hope it helps you! And thanks for the question, Kerry! It's nice to post again.

Oh, I'm Ready

Yes, Randall Hank Williams, son of Hiram "Hank" King Williams, father of Shelton Hank Williams, and if I may be so informal, Bocephus.

Yes, yes, yes, I am indeed ready for 21 weeks of ass-kicking, smack-talking, bone-crushing, acrobatic, mesmeric, ridonculous and brilliant displays of grace and athleticism, tailgating, stadium-hopping, HD-watching, Sunday-partying, official-logo-team-attire-wearing, all-I-can-possibly-eat pizza, brats, hots, burgers and beans, all washed down with more beer than I could or should drink, football.

Thank you, kind sir, for asking.

Fantasy Football 101

Welcome, new readers! If you're new to Fantasy Football (FF), or you've played for years, I hope you find this information helpful. My goal is help demystify the world of Fantasy Football, and offer simple advice and encouragement to anyone who partakes in a weekly NFL Pool (pick the winners), Survival Pool or a FF league. I love football, and numbers, and trying to keep it all in perspective.

In this first FF post, I'd like to start with the basics. Fantasy Football "skill" has nothing to do with gender, athletic ability, or maintaining an encyclopedic knowledge of sports. It's about assembling a team of players, deciding who to start, and quite often luck. Pure luck. So don't let the trash-talkers intimidate you. You're not actually playing football or coaching professional players; it all falls to the numbers. And you don't have to be a math whiz to succeed. But it sure doesn't hurt to have one on your side. That's where I come in. I love football and love numbers even more.

Feel free to ask any questions you like in the comments and I'll do my best to help you out.

I'm sure you can get great information out there but I'll give you my description of a few key items:

• Fantasy Football: Remember the first Basketball Dream Team in the 1992 Olympics (Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, Patrick Ewing, ...)? It was a team of legends. In Fantasy Football, you create your own virtual dream team of current NFL all-stars. You, along with the other FF team owners, choose your players in a draft. Once your teams are formed (usually 10-12 teams total in a league), you're paired up to play against different owners in a weekly schedule. You get points for how your fantasy players perform that week in their real NFL games, as does your opponent.
  
  Points are earned for things like touchdowns, field goals, yards passed, yards received, yards rushed (run with the football), and deducted for errors like fumbles, interceptions and missed field goals. The team with the most points in the matchup wins the "game" that week. The teams with the best records at the end of the fantasy season (usually around week 14 or 15 of the 17-week NFL season) make it in to the playoffs, and the final two teams to your FF Super Bowl where you play for whatever your league decides: cash, trophies, cookies or bragging rights.

• Fantasy Draft: Although each draft works a little differently, the typical draft has 10-12 team owners get together, in person or online, and choose their rosters (list of players). I'll speak to the details of rosters and strategies in another post, but the basic idea is everyone chooses a quarterback, a pair of running backs, a pair of wide receivers, a tight end (essentially a receiver), a kicker, a team's defense and backup players. Everyone can't have Peyton Manning as their quarterback so owners take turns choosing players, keeping track of who's available as you build your teams. And don't worry, you don't need to be an expert when it comes to choosing players. There are lots of really smart sports folk out there that rank players for you, and plenty of tools and guides available to help you. I'll be posting some spreadsheets shortly that have helped me (and others) come prepared to their draft, and put you on the same level of the FF greats.

• NFL Structure: The NFL is divided into two Conferences, the AFC and NFC. Each conference has four Divisions (East, North, South and West). Each Division has four teams. That makes a total of 32 teams and a potential of 16 games played each week.

• Bye Week: The NFL schedule is 17 weeks long, but each team has one week off between Weeks 4 and 10, called the bye. This week is critical. You need to take note of your players' bye weeks when drafting, and more importantly, scheduling. Your players can't play on their week off. I'll be posting a set of spreadsheets to help manage this, too.

• Pick Em: An office-type pool where you predict the game winners each week. The person who predicts the most correct wins the pot. Usually there is a long series of tiebreakers for deciding the final, single winner. Most pools are not "against the spread".

• Against the Spread: A 50/50 choice would be too simple. So Las Vegas oddsmakers add "the spread". For example, if Baltimore is predicted to beat Cincinnati by a spread of seven or more points, your two choices are: (1) Baltimore wins by seven or more points, or (2) Cleveland wins outright or Baltimore wins but only by six points or less. Most pools don't include these complications.

• Survival Pool: A different kind of weekly pick em game where you only have to choose one team to win. The catch? Once you choose a team, you can not choose them again the rest of the season. Sounds pretty easy, right? Wrong. Upsets happen all the time. And as the season progresses, your choices are reduced. I personally love survival pools. They're not too complicated, but it's very tough to keep your streak alive.

I'll be posting more articles as the summer winds down with helpful spreadsheets (yes, I'm a spreadsheet guy), links, and tips.

Good luck!
~Mike