Choose Wisely, You Must

After completing the 2013 Draft Day Spreadsheet (I keep it under the Spreadsheets tab - it's free to download), I can now respond to Kerry's second question in her recent comments: "Do you have any recommendations for comparing or combining rankings from different sources?"

As a matter of fact (OK opinion), I do.

I pull rankings from five different web sites: NFL, CBS Fantasy Sports, ESPN Fantasy Sports, FantasyPros and Sporting News. Then I average the five sources and rank my players based on that average. These are standard rankings, meaning they are not based on Point Per Reception (PPR) performance. And they change all the time so I update the ranks from each source as close to my draft as possible.

Some sites offer Average Draft Position (ADP), but I don't put much stock in how the rest of the world drafts their players. There are a lot of different leagues, roster requirements, scoring schemes, draft strategies and enough insanity that says: I'm not down with ADP, hey you know me.

Fantasy Projections are nice but I don't how how accurate they are. We should get a report card on these projections mid season and again after the season to see how effect they really are in predictability. We should get the same from meteorologists, but that's another topic for another day.

In my draft spreadsheets, I include several things:

• Last year's stats for each player as reference, knowing full well they may not perform like that again.
• The bye week for each player because it's crucial when building your roster (having a backup QB with the same bye week doesn't help you).
• The player's age. It can help when deciding between similarly ranked players.
• The current Depth Charts - it's quick reference to see which teams have formed a Running Back committee (just like work, committees should be avoided), who the quarterback is this year (I want to know who's throwing to this "awesome" receiver or tight end), and who are the true starters. This also changes during the preseason so later drafts benefit from more realistic information.
• A grid to track the draft for the entire league, if you're so inclined. I am so inclined.
• A grid to track the team as you choose, along with the bye weeks, and what spots are left to fill.

Before Draft Day, it's a good idea to color code players that are injured, suspended, or sleeper picks. You can add your own notes to the side.

When we're actually drafting, I shade out the players that have been picked so I can see who's available as we pick.

I'm a spreadsheet guy, so this tool helps me tremendously for all my drafts. I simply make copies for each league. Then I adjust each according to the number of teams, roster spots, bench spots and the draft order itself.

When I'm all done the draft, I use the FF 2013 Roster Management spreadsheet (also under the Spreadsheets tab and free) to manage my roster each week, track player progress, track upcoming bye week substitution needs, and prospective players available on the wire.

Thanks for the great questions, Kerry! Hopefully, this information, and my obsession with spreadsheets, is helpful.

Good luck!
~Mike

Picking Order

In a recent comment, Kerry asked: "Do you have any recommendations for position picking order, outside of player valuation? I feel like there must be a best way to choose based upon limited players available versus limited team slots versus the limitation of how many players you can play at once."

Honestly, you've just summarized what you should do!

When I head into my fantasy draft, I have a game plan and an order of positions to fill. However, it is dynamic and I adjust as the draft moves along.

The order in which you fill the slots of your roster should be based on several factors, round by round:

• Your league's scoring system
• The number of teams in your league: 10? No worries. 16? GFL.
• The roster slots you need to fill
• The number of players you can carry for each slot (for example, 2 QBs, 4 RBs, 4 WRs, etc.)
• The number of players you can play each week (for example, 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex RB/WR, etc.)
• The best players available in the slots you're filling and how many picks before your next chance comes up again
• The BYE week of the player you're considering
• And if it's a keeper league, who's gone before the draft even starts.

Think of it like inventory management for a huge, one-day sale.

In most leagues, Running Backs are the toughest and go early and often. Just remember to watch the BYE weeks before each pick so you aren't scrambling to replace multiple starters on different weeks. Also, consider the team: is it running back by committee? Do they have a strong run or are they pass happy? Do they had the touchdowns to someone else seemingly every time this guy is in?

Wide Receiver performance doesn't really show until a few weeks into the season, and there are usually at least two good WRs per team, as opposed to RBs. Every season I end up pulling WRs off the waiver wire as the strongest players show themselves well after the draft. And I'm always concerned about off-season changes. Does this WR have an established chemistry with his QB? So I try not to sweat the WRs on draft day and just make sure I get some starters.

For QBs, it's often the top three and then everyone else. Again, this depends on how your league handles scoring. And remember: there are 32 teams with full-time, starting QBs.

Tight Ends can act as receivers and pull in some touchdowns, but often their primary duty is to block. So there are only a few good fantasy tight ends each season. Personally, I don't fret over this position.

Defenses can really bring some points in, especially with special teams opportunities, but it usually takes several weeks for the strong Ds to show themselves. Even after that, consistency for big points can be rare.

Kickers can always be picked last. Just like QBs, there are 32 starters. Yes, they have the potential to provide your team points each week but the negative points from missed Field Goals or lack of opportunities for low-scoring offenses (or phenomenal offenses that only offer extra points) usually deflates that potential.

And try not to get caught up in runs, like when everyone goes for a Defense or Kicker in an early round. Let. Those. Runs. Go. But if the #1 Tight End is out there in the fifth round, it can be fun to start a run by grabbing him and then getting a WR on the swing back.

Finally, keep track of who you're picking, the bye week of every player on your roster, and who's still available in every round. I use a set of Draft Day spreadsheets (you can find mine under the Spreadsheets tab) to track all of this. Saves my ass every time.

There's no science here. Just my strategy for draft day. I hope it helps you! And thanks for the question, Kerry! It's nice to post again.

Spreadsheets. 'Nuff Said

Where are all the posts? I'm not a sportswriter, and I don't offer tons of insights into fantasy football.

What I do offer every season are fairly evolved spreadsheets for draft day, team management and pick 'em pools. And they're free.

Why? Just consider it a pay-it-forward, good Karma, I really love this game, not-trying-to-make-a-buck moment.

Just click the Spreadsheets tab above and you'll find links to the spreadsheets, housed at MediaFire (also for free so you may have to swat away some ads).

If they're helpful, I just ask you to drop a comment.

And I always update the links to the right that I personally find quite useful.

Enjoy. And good luck!
~Mike

Fantasy Football Roster Management - Extreme Spreadsheeting

It's time to manage your roster, track your player performance, look for prospects, and plan for the upcoming bye weeks. I do it, of course, through spreadsheets.

And I've uploaded the spreadsheet of all spreadsheets to help you do just that. I've been using this for years. You can download it from my MediaFire site here:

FF Roster Management 2013.XLSX

This bad boy allows you to enter the offensive/defensive points (positive and negative), as well as bonus thresholds (like extra points for long field goals, yardage bonuses, etc.) all on one tab. And all the weekly scoring worksheets are automatically updated.

Here are the worksheets you'll find inside...

• Owners - Handy reference. Just fill in Team Name, Owner's Name and Email.
• Bye - 2009 NFL Bye Week Schedule.
• Roster Key - A guide for color-coding your roster, prospects, and the player scoring.
• Roster - Enter your roster of players and track how/when they were acquired, their weekly scores and their season totals.
• 1-17 - A tab for each week of the season (though most don't go all 17 week). You enter the stats and the gray formulas to the right calculate your points and totals. You can track your opponents and your bench, too.
• Scoring - Your league's scoring rules - you can alter the points/bonus thresholds on this one tab according to your league's rules - the formulas on the 17 Weekly tabs get points from here so no need to update the Weekly tabs!

It's free people. And it's helped me for years.

Hope you like it!

~Mike

It All Starts Soon - Don't Panic!

Here's some friendly advice before the season begins: Don't panic.

I need to remember this myself because I've made some transactions early in the season that I lived to regret. Don't stay up until the wee hours of Monday morning making wild roster changes because of Sunday performances - unless your player is out for the season, which you won't really know until Wednesday anyway. I had Vinnie Testaverde the year he tore his ACL in Week 1. I was looking for Quarterbacks Sunday afternoon (that's an exception).

And don't start dropping everyone based on the combined performances of Weeks 1 to 3. I've made this mistake myself. It takes weeks for some players to get into the groove. It's very easy to think "I have to dump this guy. He's nothing like last year, or what they projected." You need to trust your roster, and adjust when it makes sense.

It also takes weeks before you know which rookies or originally lower-ranked players start stepping up and taking over, and that you can trust to perform week to week.

Now, if someone else is panicking, and starts offering trade deals, and they're really to your advantage, consider them, but be cautious. The same rules apply here. A receiver pulling in 180 yards and 3 TDs in Week 2 may be all his points for the season - he may not be the new go-to guy you were counting on.

Remember there have been coaching changes, trades, drafts, cuts, and the introduction of new offensive/defensive strategies and plays. Quarterbacks and receivers are still finding their rhythm. And groups of players are still evolving into a team. It's just like a team/project change at your own workplace - even when it's just one or two new players in the unit, or the loss of a player, it takes a while to reform and click.

Good luck!

Fantasy Football: Six Things to Remember

Here are some reminders:

• Any given Sunday - there are two teams in every game and the winner is never predetermined.

• Regardless of the skills or notoriety of the athlete, he is a human being and may or may not perform as expected when you start him, bench him, or oppose him. In fact, oftentimes the better-rated players psych themselves out or get caught up in their own hype and end up choking. So don't fret over your lineups. We all have stories about how many points are scored on our benches.

• It's all guesswork. Whether picking a game or setting your lineup, it's all a crap shoot. Make your choices and move on.

• Gender, former athletic trophies and bravado may add color to your Fantasy Football match up, but they have nothing to do with the ultimate outcome. Don't let the meatheads intimidate you. Geeks rule!

• You will never watch football the same way again. You will obsess over your game picks, roster choices, every yard/reception/score/mistake your players make each week. And you will attempt to perfect this telekinetic voodoo mindmeld thing you'll try through the TV whenever you see an opponent's players, hoping they fail, and fail miserably.

• It ain't rocket science. Oh you can use rocket science, thermal dynamics, velocity coefficients... There are plenty of complex algorithms available to help you determine scores, player performance, etc., and I've spent more than my share of time in analysis paralysis, but I also do just as well making quick picks. Just enjoy yourself!

NFL Football Weekly Pool Pick Em Spreadsheet Masterpiece - 2011

August 13, 2011 - UPDATED with 2011 Season!!! Check the Spreadsheets Tab.

First, I do realize this spreadsheet may not excite you like it does me, but I'm weird like that. I love my spreadsheets; probably because I love organization, but not to the point that I'll be appearing on A&E's Obsessed any time soon.

And I've created an awesome NFL Pick Em spreadsheet, available free to anyone who wants it. Like many of my spreadsheets, I've been using this one for years, but just took the weekend to completely revamp it. I've saved it as an XLS (Excel 2003) file.

You can get the file (for non-spread pick pools) from my folders on MediaFire here:
NFL Pick Em-2011.xls

And you can get the file (for pools against the spread) from my folders on MediaFire here: NFL Pick Em-2011-Spread.xls

Before I make my picks each week in the office pool, I have a ritual.

• Find out the favorites.
• Check out the point spread.
• Read about the matchups.
• Check for key player injuries.
• Consider home field advantage.
• Make my picks.
• Predict the Sunday Night and Monday night scores (you need those for tiebreakers).
• Predict the team who will score the lowest and the highest (also needed for tiebreakers).
• Choose my survival pool team (pick one team to win each week but can't choose same team twice). I actually have two of those going in the beginning of the season, then I'm quickly down to one.

As the games complete, I update my spreadsheets and see how I fared. I also check out what would have happened if I chose all favorites or all home teams. Each year, I would have won the pool at least once, if I had tried one of these methods, even after the tiebreakers - usually with all favorites. Home team advantage is not as big a factor as local fans would like to think.

So if you're detail-oriented or just want some helpful organization, this is the spreadsheet for you. I embrace my neuroses! Maybe I should be on A&E.

Let me know what you think!

Draft Day Spreadsheet

My 2010 Draft Day spreadsheet is ready on MediaFire (my hosting site): FF-2011 Draft Day.xls

Feel free to give it a try. I've been tweaking this one for years.

Here is an explanation of each tab:

Draft League - I use this when following the draft for my fantasy league. I copy and paste the player selected in each round under the owner's column. The positions are also color coded. They're currently in my rank order - I like the rankings and tips from Fantasy Source Football from the SportingNews. It's well worth the $19.95 per year for all of their insight. I also love their player tracking (you can track multiple fantasy teams), injury updates, sit/start tips and their player star ratings each week.

Draft - this is where I keep track of my own picks. I start with a strategy of which positions to draft first, but change that as the live draft progresses. I also follow the bye weeks of my selections to make sure I'm not too vulnerable for any one week.

Bye - just a quick chart of what teams are off on the various bye weeks to check when I'm plotting.

Depth-AFC - It's the current depth charts for all 16 teams in the AFC. Remember to tweak every few days in the preseason because it's always changing. This is helpful when selecting in later rounds - you still want a starter!

Depth-NFC - Current depth charts for the 16 NFC teams.

QB - Quarterbacks in rank order, with other helpful info like last year's stats. I like the SportingNews info here again. On Draft Day, I can delete players as they're taken (or use the font strikethrough), so I can plan my next few picks based on who's left in each position.

RB - Running Backs in rank order with last year's stats.

WR - Wide Receivers in rank order.

TE - Tight Ends in rank order.

K - Kickers in rank order.

D - Defenses in rank order.

Rookies - Rookies to watch. QB Matt Ryan was a rookie last year. You never know who will step up this year!

Sleepers - I haven't done my research this year, but they're always fun to track so you can choose one in the late, late rounds.

This is the only spreadsheet I need on draft day. I keep a template and reuse for each league.

Tell me what you think!

Rookie Mistakes

Here are a few helpful hints when heading to your Fantasy Football Draft.

• Bring the Depth Charts! NFL teams carry large rosters. Know who the starters are! I'll post a separate piece on each position.


• Don't get sucked into the hype about last year's Heisman Trophy winners. It doesn't guarantee a starting position this year!


• Know who's injured. A mild preseason injury isn't serious. A torn ACL is a season-ender. Don't count on your fellow owners to let you know before you say, "Final answer!" Many will, but it's also a competition and they're not obligated.


• Know who's suspended. You read about player notoriety in the headlines all the time. Now you need to pay attention. For example, this year Wide Receive Donte Stallworth has already been suspended for the year because of his March 14th DUI Manslaughter conviction.


• Know who's throwing to whom. A great wide receiver who moves to a new team, new offense and rookie quarterback may not be pulling down all the yards, receptions or touchdowns like he did in years past.


• Don't get carried away with your home team. When I first started, all I knew were the local heroes. Stockpiling all players from one team screams rookie, and rarely does anyone any good. However, refusing to draft certain players based on personal choice is fine. I'd select Marc Bulger's backup before picking Michael Vick. Just sayin'.


• Avoid the Committees! Just like at the office, committees can mean trouble in Fantasy. I mean Running Back by committee. You want the RB on a team where he gets the majority of carries on the field (for the yardage) and into the end zone (for the TDs). Nothing stings more than watching your guy carry the ball 59 yards and some other tank running it in for the big score.

And, yes, I'm speaking from experience on all of these. ;-)
~Mike